Can treasury inflation-protected securities safeguard investors from outward risk spillovers? A portfolio hedging strategy through the prism of COVID-19

Documenting the interlinkages among assets that are widely used to hedge against inflation is crucial for investors, as the necessity to protect the investment portfolio is stronger under inflationary conditions. For this purpose, we investigate the volatility spillovers between treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) and a battery of other assets perceived as inflation hedges, including bonds, gold, real estate, oil and equities. The applied methodology comprehends the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) extension of the Diebold and Yilmaz (Int J Forecast 28:57–66, 2012, 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.02.006) approach for the period 1/1/2010–3/31/2022. Our results indicate that the assets under consideration are moderately interconnected and subjected to several exogenous shocks, such as the US–China trade war, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. Furthermore, we assess the hedging effectiveness of TIPS against each asset by estimating hedge ratios and optimal portfolios weights, before and after the spread of COVID-19 pandemic, by using conditional variance estimations (DCC-GARCH). The empirical findings show that the short position in the volatility of TIPS is proved to be an excellent hedge for all the sampled assets, with the exception of short-term Treasury bonds, and their hedging ability was improved during COVID-19.

Can treasury inflation-protected securities safeguard investors from outward risk spillovers? A portfolio hedging strategy through the prism of COVID-19

Documenting the interlinkages among assets that are widely used to hedge against inflation is crucial for investors, as the necessity to protect the investment portfolio is stronger under inflationary conditions. For this purpose, we investigate the volatility spillovers between treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) and a battery of other assets perceived as inflation hedges, including bonds, gold, real estate, oil and equities. The applied methodology comprehends the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) extension of the Diebold and Yilmaz (Int J Forecast 28:57-66, 2012, 10.1016/j. ijforecast.2011.02.006) approach for the period 1/1/2010-3/31/2022. Our results indicate that the assets under consideration are moderately interconnected and subjected to several exogenous shocks, such as the US-China trade war, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Furthermore, we assess the hedging effectiveness of TIPS against each asset by estimating hedge ratios and optimal portfolios weights, before and after the spread of COVID-19 pandemic, by using conditional variance estimations (DCC-GARCH). The empirical findings show that the short position in the volatility of TIPS is proved to be an excellent hedge for all the sampled assets, with the exception of short-term Treasury bonds, and their hedging ability was improved during COVID-19.

On the predictive power of CAPE or Shiller’s PE ratio: the case of the Greek stock market

This paper examines the capability of the Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings (CAPE) or Shiller’s P/E ratio, along with other relative valuation ratios such as the P/E and the P/BV, to predict future returns of the FTSE/ASE Large Cap Index, starting from the development of the index (1997) to December 2018. We have herein used several regression models in order to examine the relationship between the above ratios and the future returns of 1, 3, 5 and 10 years. We show that, while P/E and P/BV ratios are not correlated to future returns, the CAPE ratio and its variation CAPE 5, which uses real 5 year earnings, are efficient estimators of future returns. Our results imply the informational inefficiency of the Greek Stock Market.

Bubble in Carbon Credits during COVID-19: Financial Instability or Positive Impact ('Minsky';or 'Social';)?

Incentivizing businesses to lower carbon emissions and trade back excess carbon allowances paved the way for rapid growth in carbon credit ETFs. The use of carbon allowances as a hedging alternative fueled this rally further, causing a shift to speculation and forming repetitive bubbles. Speculative bubbles are born from euphoria, yet, they are relatively predictable, provided their pattern matches the log periodic power law (LPPL) with specific stylized facts. A 'Minsky moment';identifies a clear speculative bubble as a signal of financial system instability, while a 'Social bubble';is regarded as relatively positive, increasing in the long run, infrastructure spending and development. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether various carbon credit bubbles during the pandemic period caused financial instability or had a positive impact ('Minsky';or 'Social';). Particularly, we investigate the carbon credit bubble behavior in the ETF prices of KRBN, GRN (Global Carbon Credit tracking ETFs), and the SOLCARBT index during the COVID-19 pandemic period by adopting the log-periodic power law model (LPPL) methodology, which has been widely used, over the past decade, for detecting bubbles and crashes in various markets. In conclusion, these bubbles are social and propelled by the newfound interest in carbon credit trading, for obvious reasons.

Value Investing versus other Investment Strategies: A Volatility Spillover Approach and Portfolio Hedging Strategies for Investors

Motivated by the incessant demand for portfolio diversification, this study examines the connectedness between value and diverse types of stocks (growth, momentum, ESG, high beta, classic S&P 500, volatility). The applied methodology encompasses the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) extension of the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) framework for the period from 03/31/2011 to 03/31/2021. Results show moderate volatility transmissions among the sampled assets, which tend to escalate during periods of turmoil, such as the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, the plunge in oil prices and the COVID-19 outbreak. Moreover, we investigate the hedging ability of value stocks within a portfolio containing other stocks, by estimating hedge ratios and optimal weights with the usage of conditional variance estimates (DCC-GARCH). The empirical findings reveal that value stocks can adequately hedge against the risk deriving from the volatility of the remaining investment instruments, especially in the case of high beta and volatility stocks. Thus, this analysis provides portfolio managers and investors with valuable insights in order for them to hedge their stock portfolios effectively.

Deconstruction of the Green Bubble during COVID-19 International Evidence

Bubbles are usually chaotic but can be predictable, provided their formation matches the log periodic power law (LPPL) with unique stylized facts. We investigated Green Bubble behaviour in the stock prices of a selection of stocks during the COVID-19 pandemic, namely, those with the highest market capitalization from a basket of North American and European green energy or clean tech companies and the S&P Global Clean Energy Index. Moreover, the biggest Exchange Traded Fund (TAN) by market capitalization was also considered. The examined period is from 31 December 2019 to 11 October 2021, during which we detected 35 Green Bubbles. All of these followed the LPPL signature while calibrated through the 2013 reformulated LPPL model. In addition, the average drawdown emerged as four times that of the regular S&P-500 stock index (108% vs. 27%) under stressed conditions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic (stylized fact). Finally, the aftermaths of Green Bubbles, unlike regular bubbles, are not destructive, as these bubbles increase economic activity and infrastructure spending and are hence beneficial for holistic growth (described as Social Bubble Hypothesis). We document that there are benefits in adapting greener and more sustainable business models in energy production. Green and sustainable finance offers benefits and opportunities for stock exchanges, especially for energy stocks. As a result, many businesses are focusing on sustainability and adopting an eco-friendly business model, which helps the environment, helps sustainability and attracts investors.

Volatility spillovers between fine wine and major global markets during COVID-19: A portfolio hedging strategy for investors

Motivated by the growing necessity of portfolio diversification, this paper investigates the dynamic connectedness among fine wine, equities, bonds, crude oil, commodities, gold, copper, shipping and real estate by applying the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) approach, based on the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model of Antonakakis et al. (2020), for the period 1/1/2010-5/31/2021. Our results indicate moderate volatility spillovers among the markets over time, whereas total connectedness is prone to exogenous shocks, reaching its peak during stress periods. Equities, crude oil, gold and fine wine are the net contributors of spillovers, whereas real estate, commodities, copper, bonds and shipping constitute the net receivers of the diffused shocks. Furthermore, we estimate and compare the hedging ability of fine wine, before and after the emergence of the coronavirus pandemic, to instruct investors in rebalancing their portfolio strategies during COVID-19. The empirical findings suggest that fine wine can form an effective hedging tool to reduce the risk deriving from adverse movements of the markets and its hedging ability was enhanced during COVID-19, with few exceptions. Regardless time period, the highest hedging effectiveness can be achieved by taking a long position in the volatility of crude oil and a short position in the volatility of fine wine.

Novel alternative assets within a transmission mechanism of volatility spillovers: The role of SPACs

This study investigates the volatility spillovers between Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) and a set of alternative instruments comprising traditional IPOs, merger arbitrage, hedge replication funds and equities, utilizing a time-varying spillover approach. Our empirical findings, based on high frequency dataset comprising 2,136 observations for the period 10/01/2020-06/08/2021, show that the level of volatility spillovers is moderate and consistent throughout the sample period. The SPAC market displays a relative neutral reaction within the channel of the diffused shocks, suggesting possible portfolio diversification gains for different types of investors.